Montag, 4. November 2019

WC Final China without chinese Athletes

OK. Follow up.
I remove the Chinese Athletes from Winsplits, such that the do not bias on the SuperWOman and compare the TOP 20 pattern of (WCF China minus Chinese) with (WC Switzerland) for Switzerland I add Zernis and Lösch to get the same x-axis for both competitions. First two figures are men, second two figures women.








Running far behind superWOman

I wonder.
 1) How much time behind superman/woman still gets you to the podium at World Cup/World Champs Sprint? (ZhuoYe Li made it with +1.21 to 3rd, Shuangyan Hao won with +1.08)
2) How many runners lost less than 1.21 on Superman/ 1.24 on Superwoman lately.

I thus took all the highest-level Sprint results available on winsplits.
 


MenWomen
EventWinner 3rd >+1.21 Winner 3rd >+1.24 W
WC China 19+1.16+1.213+1.08+1.243
WC Switzerland 19+0.25+0.3915+0.26+1.0910
WC Czech Republic 18+0.44+0.5210+0.47+1.133
WOC Riga 18+0.29+0.4920+0.41+1.143
EOC Switzerland 18+0.46+1.014+0.26+0.537
WOC Latvia 17+0.37+0.4311+0.16+0.559
WC Switzerland 16+0.22+0.4611+0.29+1.018
WOC Sweden 16+0.45+0.548+0.20+1.033
WC Poland 16+0.46+0.589+0.43+1.126
WOC GBR 15+0.39+1.0219+0.10+1.022
WC Sweden/Norway 15+0.28+0.465+0.51+0.595
WC Australia 15+0.23+0.445+0.12+1.272
WOC Italy 14+0.38+0.427+0.43+0.577
WC Switzerland 13+0.32+0.567+0.36+0.586
WOC Switzerland 12+0.38+1.054+0.38+1.233
WC Switzerland 12+0.36+0.5312+0.30+1.133
WOC France 11+0.15+0.4511+0.36+0.507
WOC Hungary 09*+0.49+1.173+0.59+1.461
WOC Denmark 06+1.03+1.045+0.38+0.495
WOC Sweden 04+0.47+0.4911+0.20+1.087

* 2009: Shuangyan Hao 20 Seconds from the podium +2.06

The World Cup Final in China 2019 was at both mens and womens class the competition in which the weakest performance as ever before allowed to win.
  • The area was at one hand the least "Europe"-like used for highest level sprint
  • At the same time, there were athletes which considered this type of terrain as they absolute home ground.
  • In addition had this World Cup Final their undisputed priority while the rest of the field hardly started to prepare before after World Cup in Switzerland. Who drew a map of the Sprint Terrain other than ZhuoYe?
  • The chinese men team started fast 3 of the Top 4 at the first intermediate, but: That was after 2 minutes and matter of some few seconds. None of them managed to keep this high starting pace. Even ZhuoYe lost 30 and 40 seconds to the direct contenders in the second half of the race.
  • There is nothing unnatural with the curves of Li and Hao, they just perform at their physical maximum, make decent choices and execute well. They are lucky, that their contenders with higher capacities do not master the terrain without time losses.
  • It is undisputed that the Chinese runners ran in person. Thus they obviously own the running capacity they screened.
  • From the overall view of the Chinese Team performance there is no indication for a collective anomaly: Yes, all start fast, but they take varying route choices all the time and they also make mistakes at different stages.

    I wrote it elsewhere, but just to make it sure, you got it. All those claiming these chinese results can not be achieved in a fair way: Make sure, that it is not you screening arrogance and a colonial mindset by playing foul.

    Present evidence.

Freitag, 15. März 2019

Mappers Blog: Focusing illusion.


fig.1. A post by Rob Plowright under a thread about mapping details in the facebook group Orienteering Mappers Int.

I want to keep this for my records as it can be seen as a nice example of the focusing illusion that contaminates orienteering maps.

It works like this: The mapper constantly overestimates the importance of the feature s/he is just looking at. S/he imagines a course setter or a runner complaining on the generalization of just this feature and thus s/he is horrified of imagined scene. The only viable solution is to map the actual situation in detail, even if in detail makes the map hard to read and to identify the feature itself.

The problem with this approach is obvious. While the course-setter could also be infected by the same focusing illusion the athlete definitely ain't.

The athlete focuses on solving the orienteering task. His/her attention is on matching map with terrain and execution of route choice.

Watch this video. I think this will make my point clear.

As long as the map does not provide wrong information, harming a route choice and thus spoiling a race to the athlete (closed entrance mapped open; impassable fence mapped passable; green worse than mapped) or in other words as long as the gorilla does not block the way, the athlete would never complain about some out-of-bounds stair/bridge generalized. Meanwhile over-mapping due to unconsidered focusing illusion is missing to map in accordance to the maps purpose.

o-zeugs over and out (late wc china finding)

Yes. Let the o-zeugs blog rest in peace. I´ll take it down eventually. And yes, I stumbled over the decisions of the Ethics Panel regarding ...