Montag, 4. November 2019

Running far behind superWOman

I wonder.
 1) How much time behind superman/woman still gets you to the podium at World Cup/World Champs Sprint? (ZhuoYe Li made it with +1.21 to 3rd, Shuangyan Hao won with +1.08)
2) How many runners lost less than 1.21 on Superman/ 1.24 on Superwoman lately.

I thus took all the highest-level Sprint results available on winsplits.

EventWinner 3rd >+1.21 Winner 3rd >+1.24 W
WC China 19+1.16+1.213+1.08+1.243
WC Switzerland 19+0.25+0.3915+0.26+1.0910
WC Czech Republic 18+0.44+0.5210+0.47+1.133
WOC Riga 18+0.29+0.4920+0.41+1.143
EOC Switzerland 18+0.46+1.014+0.26+0.537
WOC Latvia 17+0.37+0.4311+0.16+0.559
WC Switzerland 16+0.22+0.4611+0.29+1.018
WOC Sweden 16+0.45+0.548+0.20+1.033
WC Poland 16+0.46+0.589+0.43+1.126
WOC GBR 15+0.39+1.0219+0.10+1.022
WC Sweden/Norway 15+0.28+0.465+0.51+0.595
WC Australia 15+0.23+0.445+0.12+1.272
WOC Italy 14+0.38+0.427+0.43+0.577
WC Switzerland 13+0.32+0.567+0.36+0.586
WOC Switzerland 12+0.38+1.054+0.38+1.233
WC Switzerland 12+0.36+0.5312+0.30+1.133
WOC France 11+0.15+0.4511+0.36+0.507
WOC Hungary 09*+0.49+1.173+0.59+1.461
WOC Denmark 06+1.03+1.045+0.38+0.495
WOC Sweden 04+0.47+0.4911+0.20+1.087

* 2009: Shuangyan Hao 20 Seconds from the podium +2.06

The World Cup Final in China 2019 was at both mens and womens class the competition in which the weakest performance as ever before allowed to win.
  • The area was at one hand the least "Europe"-like used for highest level sprint
  • At the same time, there were athletes which considered this type of terrain as they absolute home ground.
  • In addition had this World Cup Final their undisputed priority while the rest of the field hardly started to prepare before after World Cup in Switzerland. Who drew a map of the Sprint Terrain other than ZhuoYe?
  • The chinese men team started fast 3 of the Top 4 at the first intermediate, but: That was after 2 minutes and matter of some few seconds. None of them managed to keep this high starting pace. Even ZhuoYe lost 30 and 40 seconds to the direct contenders in the second half of the race.
  • There is nothing unnatural with the curves of Li and Hao, they just perform at their physical maximum, make decent choices and execute well. They are lucky, that their contenders with higher capacities do not master the terrain without time losses.
  • It is undisputed that the Chinese runners ran in person. Thus they obviously own the running capacity they screened.
  • From the overall view of the Chinese Team performance there is no indication for a collective anomaly: Yes, all start fast, but they take varying route choices all the time and they also make mistakes at different stages.

    I wrote it elsewhere, but just to make it sure, you got it. All those claiming these chinese results can not be achieved in a fair way: Make sure, that it is not you screening arrogance and a colonial mindset by playing foul.

    Present evidence.


Anonym hat gesagt…

I was thinking at the same thing. What if it had been World Championships? I think then the European runners would have put a lot more effort in. Now the Chinese runners put a lot effort in and they did well in the end. It's only sprint race not a longdistance race.

Bernt O. Myrvold hat gesagt…

Looking at Bulletin 1 for the China World Cup there is a fairly new (2016) map of the area used. Obviously any runner that wanted could have done a lot of armchair orienteering, and be very well prepared without any wrong doing.

Do you have split times for the previous WC round in Switzerland? ZhouYe Li was 1:18 behind the winner in his qualification heat. As your table show, the winner is normally not far behind Superman. Ergo he was running at a comparable level in the previous WC round as well.

M.Lerjen hat gesagt…

ZhuoYe ran Q heat 3 which was also Qualification for the knock-out Sprint. You find the results there.

The winning time of Ralph Street was 10.23 with a Superman +0.42 while ZhouYe ended up at 11.41 with Superman +2.00.

That is not a similiar result to the one he got in China. Actually he might never make it to the podium in Europe. Europe is not his hood.

(He made it to the WOC Middle Final this year, not to bad)

Anonym hat gesagt…

Well, with the new rule from IOF (The 15 best athletes in each heat qualify for the final (45 athletes) and the remaining 15 spots are given to Federations with no top 15 athletes), its not that good anymore either...

Anonym hat gesagt…

Of Course I do not have evidence of any cheating Chinese athletes, but I guess an old article of you could be a sign:

You show that orienteering slows down an average good sprinter (if the Swiss can be seen as good sprinters) by 8%. If ZhuoYe was running the course before, you could see his World-Cup-Run as a Re-Run and you had to add 8% to his running time -> he would have ended up at 16:36, 1:18 behind Yannick Michiels in 36th place.

In his World Cup Sprintrace in Switzerland, he lost 2.21 to Yannick and ended up in 93rd place (comibining the results of A and B final) without any bigger mistake. He managed to have 1 Split in Top20 whereas in China he ran 15 splits in Top20. Of Course it could be that he was not running full speed in the B Final, but then again there are not many world-cup-podium-runners sporting an attitude of not running full speed. And as you described in your comment, his sprint qualification, where he hopefully tried to run fast, was not better.

I personally think that the development from 93rd to 36th would have been a nice achievement in the light of his high motivation and knowledge of similar terrain. The additional 8% to me look like a rerun-advantage. A suspicion that is supported by the facts, that the two easiest controls of the race (17 and 22), for which the re-run-advantage is lowest, is where he looses most time.

As I said before, suspicions and not proof...

M.Lerjen hat gesagt…

@anonymus: Yes this is correct.

1) 8% is not the average loss of speed for a re-run. It is just the difference for the curve in fig.1.. The value varies in-between runners. On a good day the difference can be as low as 2.7% (Christoph Meier fig.3).
You can not diagnose a "re-run" just on the running time. You also must present indications how the leaking of the courses. Her is what Blair Trewin stated on this: "I think it's plausible that training happened on the area using old maps - and if you saw the old map, you could probably make an educated guess as to where the arena was, and from there the likely area where the first part of the course would be (but a lot of teams do that these days) - but think it extremely unlikely that the course was leaked (not least because the second half was completely redesigned in the last few weeks before the event, and some fine-tuning such as addition/removal of forbidden areas was happening up until the evening before the event; also, almost none of those who had access to the final or near-final courses were locals, with Jaroslav Kacmarcik as the course-setter)."

Ivar Lundanes hat gesagt…

@Bernt O Myrvold:

In the Qualification for the Knockout Sprint in Switzerland Zhuoye was 27th of 38th finishing in heat C and 1:18 down on Ralph Street. Street were 42s behind superman in this heat, which means Zhuoye were exactly 2 minutes behind superman. This was on a course where the winning time were 10:23. At the sprint in China the winning team where 15:18, which means Zhuoyes qualification times would mean a time about 3 minutes behind Superman if the qualification would've been 15 minutes. That is really a lot, when Winsplits only give him 16seconds of mistakes with the conditions 0.03/3s (which should catch almost every small mistakes.

At the sprint in Switzerland Zhuoye were 2:21 behind Yannick and 2:46 behind Superman. Winning time was 13:29, which meand Zhuoy would've been about 3 minutes behind Superman on a 15 minute race. And this race he did almost perfectly clean, with only 9 seconds of mistake (0.03/3%).

So both races in Switzerland (which the splits shows he executed well technically) shows Zhouyes level to be about 3 minutes behind Superman on a race with winning time on 15 minutes. Then in China he's only 1:21 behind Superman, which is an improvement of about or more than 1 1/2 minute!

Do you still mean what you finished your comment with: "Ergo he was running at a comparable level in the previous WC round as well" ???

Anonym hat gesagt…

What exactly you want to show with this table? Can you share us your opinion?

M.Lerjen hat gesagt…

@anonymus: first. I do not want to show anything but collect knowledge. second. The knowledge I earn here is, that this was possibly the most technical and/or most under-prepared World Cup sprint over what is available from winsplits.
third. @ivar: this is what you seem to miss. You cannot compare the Swiss Superman with the Chinese. In China there simply weren't any supetWOmen at the start. 3 minutes down in Switzerland means that he has to catch up 1.39 to end up where he endend. Therby he gets about fourty seconds from the maladapted European/weaker superman, then it is one minute left between running in his own hoods instead of Europe. That does not seem unlikely enough to me.

Anonym hat gesagt…

I think Ivar has a point here: Zhuoye seems to almost not do any mistakes in sprints. Wich was maybe enough to finish with a good result in china this time?!

M.Lerjen hat gesagt…

From that point I will return to my policy to delete comment which sender is not identifiable.